A Tale of Two Countries Part One: Thailand, Singapore, and the Climate Crisis

You have noticed it, right? It’s a bit hotter outside than normal. Let’s not mince words; it has been unbearable outside this summer. As it was last summer, as well as the summer before that, and before that, and so forth. The world is getting warmer, call it Global Warming. None of this is new, of course, although our politicians may not be so caring about the increasingly dire state of the climate, the world’s scientists have known for decades by this point. In 2015, however, we appeared to have made a big step in the fight for Earth’s future. One hundred ninety-six nations and non-state representatives signed the Paris Climate Agreement, seeking to keep global temperature increase below 1.5 Degrees Celsius.

Results have been less than optimal in the last seven years, our two countries of interest being no exception. This four-part series on Thai and Singaporean adaptations to the agreement will be filtered through the lens of their attempts to implement green strategies. Solar in today’s article, but we will view topics such as water conservation and wind at later dates. Before moving into the specifics of each nation’s solar policies, it is worth examining where exactly these countries stand in meeting their goals.

It brings this writer no pleasure to report that Thailand and Singapore are both considered “highly insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker—an independent organization tasked with tracking and analyzing the carbon reduction progress of Paris Agreement Constituents. In fact, neither is even prepared to meet their lowered 2 Degrees Celsius internal targets. By the end of our series in December, the negative impact of Paris’s “non-binding” nature should be apparent as each country has no true incentive to stay on course. Individual sections of the Paris Agreement will be cited as needed; when analyzing the policies of Thailand and Singapore, we should keep in mind Article 4, which provides “developing countries” with leeway on meet their goals.[1] Article 4 is a good place to start our introduction to Thai and Singaporean solar policies, as economic development has and continues to affect solar resource access.

Thailand:

            The last decade has not been kind to the Southeast Asian nation economically and politically, so their surge in solar production has been a miracle, regardless of recent stagnation. Total capacity for solar energy has more than doubled since the signing of the agreement, going from 1298.51 Megawatts (from now on “MW”) in 2014 to 3190 MW in 2023. Intentions for further development were announced in Thailand’s 2021 “Long-Term Strategy One (LTS1)” plan, but less as a national aim and more as a potential place of economic investment. For instance, the most extensive details on solar energy in the LTS1 plan are only a couple of lines dedicated to solar water heater’s potential to clean up household emissions. After reviewing the LTS1 alongside other assessments by UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), I’d say that Thailand is letting the private sector take the lead on development out of disinterest and governmental instability.

Instead of forward-facing renewable projects, fossil fuel production has received the Thai government’s largest investments, dampening green advancements made over the last few years. Solar is inexorably tied to the ambitious plans involving electric vehicles that are next month’s focus. Yet, you could be forgiven for not believing this to be the case when reviewing the data. For comparison, Ember-Climate has Thai fossil fuel production at 37,800 MW, with Thailand expressing no plans to roll back fossil fuel production in the near future. This is where our discussion ends for Thai Solar, though not for lack of research but due to the early stage of solar energy inside the kingdom. As former President Trump so eloquently put it during the presidential debate, Thailand has a “concept of a plan” and few actions.   

Singapore:

            Unlike its fellow Asia Clean Energy Coalition members, Singapore cannot claim Article 4 protections. One of only a handful of city-states left in the world, Singapore is a gem in the east. Boasting regional supremacy in GDP per capita and unimpeded annual economic growth. The city is a giant in trade, and beauty, and… it's doing worse than Thailand. I could keep adding to the reasons why Singapore should be doing better in climate investment than a country with an entire Wikipedia page dedicated to listing its many military coups, but it would not get to the issue itself. To be clear, this is not just in solar, Singapore falls behind across the board. It was quite baffling when, in their “Fourth National Communication and Third Biennial Update Report (2018),” they flaunt only “contributing 0.11% of global emissions” while being so lax in enacting policy.

            In the same 2018 report, solar is listed as the most viable replacement for fossil fuels, while admitting that all renewable suitors are limited by the unique geographic shortcomings faced by a coastal city-state. In Singapore’s defense, any renewable option forces them into the energy dependence of other countries. They do not have enough land for solar farms, nor the right water circumstances for hydroelectric solutions; land availability by far is the most limiting aspect of the nation’s move towards zero-emission existence.

Singapore has increased its solar power capacity by leaps and bounds between Paris’ signing and 2024 30 MW to 770 MW, respectively; however, these numbers are dwarfed by their fossil fuel metrics. 2023 yielded a fossil fuel capacity of 11,080 MW, even though that disparity is jarring, the 11,080 figure is curious. 11,080 MW is a two-year low, meaning the overall number is dropping. Singapore’s all-time highest capacity was in 2022 at 11,360 MW, and the volume has been falling steadily ever since. If another drop of that magnitude occurs, then Singapore will have reduced its carbon capacity to pre-Paris levels. With some work, their emissions could recede parallel with their capacity to produce it. International cooperation is too unique in Singapore. Just last month, Reuters reported on a 13.5-billion-dollar deal with Australia to ship part of SunCables’ 600,000 MW of solar production to the small nation. Application of the deal will take time, but it is in motion.

            Singapore is on the path to change, primarily with solar, but it is no doubt too slow. I will save the round-up for the conclusion in December, but Singapore is a disappointment considering the vast resources it has access to. Hopefully, as the short-term effects of climate change begin to ramp up on the city, the Singaporean government will make the sweeping advancements they are more than equipped to make happen. Next month, we will get into the ever-more competitive electric vehicle market and view how—perhaps even if—these two nations are preparing to change from gas pumps to charging stations.